Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to near 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N25W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is from 00N-07N between 03W- 14W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm N and 270 nm S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axes between 14W-28W and within 420 nm S of the ITCZ between 28W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen from 03S-05N between 40W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper-level diffluence and upper-level divergence over the NW Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching disturbance currently over western Oklahoma, western Texas and north-central Mexico is inducing scattered showers over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico, northwest of a line from 29N84W to 23N96W. Farther west, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are occurring today over Texas with the aforementioned disturbance and an associated frontal boundary. A 1019 mb high is centered over the north-central Florida peninsula, leading to tranquil weather over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front over Texas will move into the NW Gulf on Thursday morning. This will cause the high pressure over the eastern Gulf to retreat eastward. The front will reach the far eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday evening. It will become stationary, and weaken to a trough on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along with the front, and they should reach the NW Gulf late tonight. Some of the thunderstorms in the northern Gulf could be strong, with gusty winds and frequent lightning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The latest ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate trades over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, although fresh winds are likely occurring near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are over the NW Caribbean Sea. Relatively dry air is leading to mostly fair weather over most of the Caribbean. The air is slightly more moist in the SE Caribbean. As a result, isolated showers are seen near Trinidad and the northeast coast of Venezuela. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over NW Venezuela. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected along the coast of Colombia tonight until Thursday morning, and from Thursday afternoon until Friday morning. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to locally strong trades will pulse tonight and Thursday night. Moderate trade winds will continue elsewhere through today. Trades over the eastern and central Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh tonight, and continue at that strength for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 mb high is off the coast of N Florida near 30N77W. A surface trough extends from 30N66W to the SE Bahamas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the trough from 25N-28N between 67W-71W. A pair of 1014 mb lows connected by a surface trough are near 30N46W and 30N57W, respectively. An upper-level trough is present from 21N-31N between 60W-69W. A weakening upper-level low is near 31N44W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the upper trough from 24N-27N between 59W-63W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper-level low are seen north of 27N between 38W-46W. Farther south, a surface trough is noted from 23N43W to 15N55W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the NE end of the trough from 21N-25N between 39W- 45W. The surface trough from 30N66W to the SE Bahamas will dissipate gradually today. The next cold front will move off the southeastern United States coast on Friday night/Saturday morning. Strong S winds are expected to the E of the front with strong W to NW winds to the west of the front, from 27N northward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, are expected to affect much of the area north of 27N from Friday through late Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen
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