NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Dec 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W, then transitions to the ITCZ near 06N20W. 
The ITCZ continues westward to 02N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring from 04N to 08N between 13W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb low is centered near 27N97W, and a trough persists over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico into the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to
strong E to NE winds are occurring to the east of these features
and across southern portions of the basin. Fresh NE winds are
occurring farther north ahead of a decaying cold front, which
extends from the coast of NW Florida to southeastern Texas. Behind
this front, very strong high pressure is building over the central
United States. Rough seas expand through the areas of strong 
winds over south-central through western portions of the Gulf, as 
well as through the Yucatan Channel. 

For the forecast, high pressure building over the southeastern 
United States will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds over the
S Gulf through tonight. Fresh to strong SE return flow will 
prevail in the western Gulf into Wed night, accompanied by rough 
seas and numerous showers and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, a weak
cold front will reach the northern Gulf coast Thu, then move 
across the northern Gulf into Fri. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring over the NW Caribbean and 
across the Windward Passage, between strong high pressure well 
north of the region, and lower pressure over Colombia. Seas of 8 
to 11 ft are observed across the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, fresh 
to strong NE to E winds are also noted off Colombia, and the 
convergence of these winds are supporting scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough off Panama and 
Costa Rica, and also across the offshore waters of Nicaragua. 
Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will
support fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas 
over most of the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage into Thu. The 
high pressure will weaken and shift eastward Thu, allowing winds 
and seas to diminish, although fresh to strong NE winds will 
persist south of Cuba and near the Cayman Islands into Sat. 
Farther south, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will 
pulse off Colombia into the weekend. NE swell will lead to seas of
8 to 10 ft for Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles into Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A series of cold fronts continue to move across the western
Atlantic while the remainder of the forecast area remains under
the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure located near the Azores.
This pattern is supporting mostly fresh NE to E winds to the east
of 60W along with 7 to 10 ft seas. A cold front extends from 
31N63W to the southeastern Bahamas. A pre-frontal trough 
stretches from 24N65W to the Mona Passage. A few showers and 
thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front over Haiti and off the 
north coast of Hispaniola, and also along the frontal boundary. 
Farther west, another reinforcing cold front extends from SE of 
Bermuda to just east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
are occurring across the Bahamas to northern Cuba. A cold front 
coming off the coast of the southeastern United States is located 
from 31N77W to the northeastern coast of Florida. Fresh to locally
strong NW winds are occurring along and behind this front. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the fronts to the north of the
Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas will merge and reach 
from 31N55W to central Cuba Wed from 28N55W to just N of 
Hispaniola by late Wed, then stall and weaken through Fri. High 
pressure builds in behind the front, and strong NE winds will 
continue S of 21N, offshore Hispaniola and eastern Cuba through 
Wed night. A surface trough will pass mainly N of the area into 
Wed, but accompanying strong W winds will impact waters N of 28N.
The next cold front will move into northern waters Thu into Fri, 
bringing more strong mainly W winds N of 28N through the end of 
the week. 

$$
ADAMS