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Annual Forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane Season
Forecast for 2009: Near Normal * *

Forecast Date Tropical
Storms
Hurricanes Major
Hurricanes
Full
Details
Verification Forecast
by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray
Storms Hurr Maj Hurr
June & July 2009
Observed
August 2009
Forecast
Observed
September 2009
Forecast
Observed
October 2009
Forecast
Observed
Entire season
Forecast
Observed*

* June through November

Season summary - tracks and maps

NOAA - May 21, 2009 9-14 4-7 1-3
Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea, Benfield Hazard Research Centre:
April 6, 2009 15 7.8 3.6
Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Colorado State University:
August 5, 2009
June 2, 2009
April 7, 2009 12 6 2
Dec 10, 2008 14 7 3
Long Term average 1950 to 2000 9.6 5.9 2.3
Summary and verification of the 2008 season

Saffir-Simpson Scale

Type Minimum Surface
Pressure
(mb)
Max Sustained
Wind Speed
Surge
(feet)
Knots MPH
Depression ----- less than 34 less than 39
Tropical Storm ----- 34-63 39-73

HURRICANES:
Category 1 greater than 980 64-82 74-95 4-5
Category 2 965-980 83-95 96-110 6-8

INTENSE OR MAJOR HURRICANES:
Category 3 945-965 96-112 111-130 9-12
Category 4 920-945 113-134 131-155 13-18
Category 5 less than 920 134+ 155+ 18+

NOTE: One knot is equal to 1.15 mph

Damage Potential

Category Level Description Example
1 MINIMAL Damage primarily to shrubbery, trees, foliage, and unanchored homes. No real damage to other structures. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Low-lying coastal roads inundated, minor pier damage, some small craft in exposed anchorage torn from moorings. Hurricane Earl (1998)
2 MODERATE Considerable damage to shrubbery and tree foliage; some trees blown down. Major damage to exposed mobile homes. Extensive damage to poorly constructed signs. Some damage to roofing materials of buildings; some window and door damage. No major damage to buildings. Coast roads and low-lying escape routes inland cut by rising water 2 to 4 hours before arrival of hurricane center. Considerable damage to piers. Marinas flooded. Small craft in unprotected anchorages torn from moorings. Evacuation of some shoreline residences and low-lying areas required. Hurricane Georges (1998)
3 EXTENSIVE Foliage torn from trees; large trees blown down. Practically all poorly constructed signs blown down. Some damage to roofing materials of buildings; some wind and door damage. Some structural damage to small buildings. Mobile homes destroyed. Serious flooding at coast and many smaller structures near coast destroyed; larger structures near coast damaged by battering waves and floating debris. Low-lying escape routes inland cut by rising water 3 to 5 hours before hurricane center arrives. Flat terrain 5 feet of less above sea level flooded inland 8 miles or more. Evacuation of low- lying residences within several blocks of shoreline possibly required. Hurricane Fran (1996)
4 EXTREME Shrubs and trees blown down; all signs down. Extensive damage to roofing materials, windows and doors. Complete failures of roofs on many small residences. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Flat terrain 10 feet of less above sea level flooded inland as far as 6 miles. Major damage to lower floors of structures near shore due to flooding and battering by waves and floating debris. Low-lying escape routes inland cut by rising water 3 to 5 hours before hurricane center arrives. Major erosion of beaches. Massive evacuation of all residences within 500 yards of shore possibly required, and of single- story residences within 2 miles of shore. Hurricane Andrew (1992)
5 CATASTROPHIC Shrubs and trees blown down; considerable damage to roofs of buildings; all signs down. Very severe and extensive damage to windows and doors. Complete failure of roofs on many residences and industrial buildings. Extensive shattering of glass in windows and doors. Some complete building failures. Small buildings overturned or blown away. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Major damage to lower floors of all structures less than 15 feet above sea level within 500 yards of shore. Low-lying escape routes inland cut by rising water 3 to 5 hours before hurricane center arrives. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5 to 10 miles of shore possibly required. Hurricane Camille (1969)


Note that tropical storms are not on this scale, but can produce extensive damage with rainfall-produced flooding. Note also that category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes are collectively referred to as major (or intense) hurricanes.

Source: Hurricane Research Division, NOAA