FORECASTERS are calling for an active hurricane season next year, with at least one major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean.
The forecast by Professor William Gray of the Colorado State University comes four days after the 16th cyclone for the season dissipated, ending one of the most active hurricane years in history which left 99 people dead and US$5.262 billion in damage.
Gray and his team of forecasters predict that 13 storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes with winds in excess of 111 miles per hour will arise next year. He admitted that during the last seven active years his team under-forecast the number of cyclones and as a result they dropped one of the factors the Sahael rainfall in the equation this year. This factor had not shown a correlation with the number of hurricanes. However, other factors such as the direction of high-level winds, El Niņo, sea level pressure and temperature continue to be forecasting elements.
"We have always believed that the atmosphere will act in the future as it has in the past," Gray said. "This assumption can fail in some years but when applied over a period of several years we find that the atmosphere and ocean does indeed have a long-period memory in most years."
The most active part of the season will start in August, he said.
For this year's season, he forecast 12 storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes but there were 15 storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.