Publication: Sunday Sun Paper Section And Page: 1X Paper Date: Sun, Dec 17, 2001 Byline: Terry Ally
Another tsunami early warning system is to be established in the
Caribbean. It is the Intra-Americas Sea Tsunami Warning System (IAS TWS)
whose chairman Dr George Maul of Florida Institute of Technology says is
to cover a wider range of hazards which could trigger large sea waves.
Such hazards could include tsunamis from outside the Caribbean such as
near Portugal, landslides from the Langs Soufriere Volcano in Montserrat,
submarine earthquakes caused by dip-slip faults many of which are found
around the northern Leeward Islands of Puerto Rico, the United States and
British Virgin Islands, Barbuda, and southern Cuba. Earthquakes north of
the Virgin Islands have caused tsunamis to hit the Virgin Islands in the
past. In addition, there was also the risk of submarine slumping caused by
underwater landslides.
"There could be underwater landslides especially around the continental margin on the east coast of the United States where sediment has been laying down for millions of years and evidence suggests that every once in a while a large block of sediment becomes unstable and slides in creating a sea wave," Maul told the SUNDAY SUN.
While there are a few tsunamis in the Caribbean the risk today is tremendous and therefore justifies this US$1 million project, he added.
"If you look at risk of infrastructure and human life it is quite substantial due to high population density on the coasts."
The proposal calls for the establishment or upgrading of ultra-broadband seismographs.
"The idea is to complete the network and if there is an event, the system calculates the strength and location and broadcasts it, and that broadcast is available to anyone who listens."
The plan is to have a distributive network comprising a number of subgroups to receive, analyse, and interpret the information and then issue an alert. Such a subgroup could be the Seismic Research Unit in Trinidad which is presently operating an early warning system for the underwater volcano Kick 'Em Jenny.
The third component of the IAS TWS is a series of tidal gauges which were set up throughout the Caribbean by the Barbados-based Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change.
"These will be modified and would be triggered if there are certain rapid changes in the water level indicative of a tsunami. That information would be transmitted via the distributive network and it would be the responsibility of locally trained personal responsibility of locally trained people to interpret and issue warnings.
"We think it is an approach that will work very well because there is a good cadre of well educated scientists and engineers in the region who could be given additional training to make these decisions on a local basis," Maul explained.
The proposal has been presented for endorsement and approval to all major international organisations concerned with this area and in particular the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) whose Caribbean sub-grouping has endorsed it. Final approval was expected in June next year after which the Organisation of American States will be asked to implement the programme. The cost is expected to be about US$1 million and it will take three years to become operational.
A large portion of the implementation will be to educate the public on the dangers of tsunamis and what to do. While that is relatively easy for people to flee the coast line the troublesome worry remains the buildings and facilities remaining such as essential services. Another big concern is the number of false alarms of a tsunami warning system.
"We are very worried about this, the Pacific is worried about it and they have spent a great deal of effort trying to minimise it but the number is still probably about 50 per cent and it will probably be that way for a little while until we learn something fundamentally new."
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