A top regional scientist said that the days of using only historical weather data for coastal development must come to an end.
Dr Ulric Trotz said climate change impacts must now be included.
“Protect now and avoid disaster later” was the simple message that the Barbados-based Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACC) is now pushing after ending four year’s of study of the region’s climate and about to enter a new phase of designing means and ways to protect the billions of dollars in coastal properties throughout the Caribbean.
“After Hurricane Lenny there has been a lot of rehabilitation work which takes into account climate data but it is historical data and there has been no accommodation for what is likely to happen in the future,” Trotz told the WEEKEND NATION. “In Guyana, for example, they are looking at sea wall rehabilitation and when we ask then if they took into account sea level rise in the next 20 to 25 years they said no. That is a culture we have to develop.”
Similarly, he said that when they spoke with the people redesigning the cruise ship terminal in St Kitts which was damaged by Lenny, they have factored in the one-in-50 year return storm but they have treated Lenny as a one-shot, one-in-a-lifetime event. Trotz said that was a wrong assumption with today’s unpredictable climate.
“What climate change is telling you, in simple language, is that the one-in-50 year and one-in-100 year return event will be more frequent and you need to prepare for that. That is the perspective we want people to take into the planning process.
“Regardless of whether the big polluters cut their greenhouse gas emissions to levels which are safe, a cycle has already been set in motion and climate will continue to change until the cycle is complete.
“We’re talking about 100 years before we get back to normal.
To this end, Trotz said the structure of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) must change. An EIA looks primarily at how the development impacts on the environment to include how the environment (namely climate change) impacts on development.
The four-year Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change, based at the University of the West Indies in Barbados, ends on December 31.
It is being replaced by Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean (ACCC) from next January 1. The region will also see the creation of a Caribbean Climate Change Centre to move the work from the “planning” to the “adaptation” stage.
Trinidad, Barbados, Antigua, Belize, and Grenada are bidding to host the new organisation – a decision which will be made by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).
In the last four years the US$6.5 million project, funded by the Global Environment Facility of the World Bank, has installed 18 climate stations throughout the region which record certain atmospheric and oceanic data such as sea level rise and sea surface temperatures.
Great concern
“These are parameters which are of great concern and we are starting to understand the science of climate change in the region,” said Trotz.
Added to that there is over one century of weather data sitting in meteorological offices across the Caribbean which no one is analysing for trends.
Under ACCC, selected meteorological offices and the Caribbean Institute for Hydrology and Meteorology will receive assistance to put this information into perspective so that trends can be established and predictions made.
So far, there are many global computer models that give a general indication of what might happen in the Caribbean, but Trotz and his team are going to narrow that to specifics.
“We have to endogenise the dialogue. When I talk about climate change I must be able to say: this is what is happening in Barbados, this is what is happening in St Lucia. I need to be able to bring climate change home.”
Likely hazards
CPACC has seen a number of Caribbean nationals trained in specialised areas such as economic evaluation of natural resources, design of economy instruments for environmental management, monitoring of reefs for climate change impact, carrying out coastal zone vulnerability and risk assessment which are essential areas to predicting impacts.
The likely impacts of climate change in the Caribbean are warmer sea surface temperatures which will kill reefs and in a place like Belize with the Great Barrier reef, that could spell doom to the country’s economy which relies on marine tourism.
Another impact could be sea level rise which could put at risk billions of dollars in coastal development and essential services such as power-generating facilities which sit on the beach in Barbados. There is also a possibility of more intense hurricanes.