The most important things in your home are the people. - Unknown
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1650 UTC.


Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the 
island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is undergoing frequent
eruptions. Satellite imagery shows the volcanic ash plume 
spreading well to the east and northeast of St. Vincent, roughly 
in an area from 10N-18N between 40W-62W, which includes Barbados.
Violent volcanic eruptions may occur suddenly without warning. 
Volcanic ash may be reaching the ocean surface east northeast of 
St. Vincent. Mariners should exercise caution, and report 
ash or floating debris to the National Weather Service by calling


The monsoon trough axis extends southward from the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N22W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ to 01N30W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 240 nm south of the ITCZ between 21W-26W.


A cold front is slowly moving east across the NW Gulf. As of 15 
UTC the front stretches from the western edge of the Florida 
Panhandle to northeast Mexico near 25N97W, and the latest 
scatterometer pass revealed moderate N-NE winds behind the front.
Ahead of the boundary, a cluster of thunderstorms continues to 
move across the NE Gulf and Northern Florida north of 27N and east
of 88W. With a rather potent upper-level trough located over the 
eastern Gulf and ample available moisture in place at the low-
levels from persistent fresh southerly winds along with daytime 
heating, expect additional clusters of strong to severe 
thunderstorms to develop over the NE Gulf and over central 
Florida. The main hazards associated with these storms are likely 
to be wind gusts of 35-45 kt and frequent lightning. The storms 
will propagate east-southeastward during the day.

Elsewhere in the Gulf, a 1006 mb low is along a surface trough 
is located near 22N94W in the southwest Gulf. Gentle to moderate 
winds are in the southern Gulf around the low. Seas across the 
basin are 3-5 ft. 

The cold front over the northern Gulf will move 
eastward, reaching from north Florida to the east-central Gulf by
late tonight. It will weaken further to a trough as it reaches 
the southeastern Gulf Mon and dissipates late Mon. An upper- 
level trough will help generate scattered showers and 
thunderstorms over most of the eastern Gulf waters today. Some of 
this activity may contain frequent lightning and strong gusty 


See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall 
Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

The latest surface analysis depicts a rather weak pressure 
gradient across the basin. ASCAT data shows fresh trades over 
most of the basin, while fresh to strong east-southeast winds in 
the Gulf of Honduras as well as the Yucatan Channel. Mainly fair 
weather conditions are in place across the basin. Wave heights are
in the 3-6 ft range, except for slightly higher wave heights of 
5-7 ft in the central Caribbean area and within the Gulf of 

For the forecast, fresh southeast winds will continue over the
northwestern Caribbean through this afternoon, while fresh to 
strong east to southeast winds continue in the Gulf of Honduras. 
Winds will pulse to strong speeds over a small area near the coast
of Colombia during the afternoons and at night through Wed. 
Elsewhere, generally moderate to fresh east winds will change 
little through Thu night.


See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall 
Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

The latest scatterometer data shows fresh to strong southerly 
winds west of 73W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving 
E-SE across the Florida Peninsula. Storms are currently offshore 
northern Florida north of 26N and west of 76W. Storms will bring 
frequent lightning and strong gusty winds to the coastal waters 
between Florida and the Bahamas later today and tonight.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds east of 
Florida will shift eastward through Mon ahead of a cold front 
that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight. The front 
will reach from near 31N75W to east-central Florida early Mon, 
from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba 
Mon evening and the southeast waters by late Tue. The front will 
move east of the forecast waters on Wed as weak high pressure 
builds in behind it. Another cold front is expected to cross the 
northwest and north- central waters beginning Tue. Fresh to strong
southwest winds are expected to precede this front. Scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are 
expected to push off the Florida coast today.

Farther east, a large area of fresh to strong west winds 
associated with a low pressure system north of our discussion 
area continues to affect waters north of 26N between 27W-51W. Seas
are 11-17 ft in this area. Northerly swell from this system, with
seas in excess of 8 ft, is affecting most of the central Atlantic
north of 21N between 26W-63W. Fast-moving small cells of showers 
and thunderstorms are seen rotating cyclonically in the southern 
semicircle of this low. This activity is brushing the waters north
of 29N between 39W- 48W. Cold air instability aloft is helping to
sustain this activity. South of the low, weak surface trough is 
analyzed from 30N30W to 15N62W. Upper-level diffluence to the east
of the northeastern portion of the surface trough is aiding an 
area of scattered moderate convection east of the trough from 
about 24N to 32N between 23W-31W. High pressure ridging and gentle
anticyclonic flow dominates the waters east of the trough.


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