Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 730 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends continues from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A pair of 1013 mb surface lows are drapped along a stationary front across the Gulf this evening. The front extends from the west coast of Florida near 27.5N81W to low pressure near 26N92W to low pres near 25N96.5W, then extends southward to just north of Veracruz, Mexico along 20N. E to NE winds of 15-20 kt prevail north of the front across the near and offshore waters of Louisiana and Texas, then turn northerly around 15 kt to the west of the front across the Mexican coastal waters. A broad band of scattered showers is occurring within 90 nm north of the front with a few embedded thunderstorms across the Texas coastal waters. To the south, a surface trough has developed along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N89W to 18N92W. The two low pressure centers will move east-southeastward and weaken through tonight, while pulling the western portion of the stationary front eastward into the west central Gulf, while the remainder of the front drifts southward to SW Florida. Fresh to strong NE to E winds behind the front will diminish as it stalls over the central Gulf tonight into Mon, then dissipates by Mon night. High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic early this week, with a ridge to extend westward across the eastern Gulf through mid- week. Another cold front may move into the northern Gulf late Thu night. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fair weather with limited shower activity is noted across the Caribbean this afternoon as dry and stable conditions dominate the middle atmosphere across all but far SE portions. The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the Bahamas and the Colombian low is driving strong tradewinds south of 13N across the coastal waters of Colombia and Venezuela. Fresh winds are also noted over the Gulf of Honduras and through the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades persist across the remainder of the basin. Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle of this week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will continue pulsing each night over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds with locally higher seas will prevail along the coast of Colombia through the middle of this week. Long-period northerly Atlantic swell will continue moving through the waters east of the Leeward Islands and through the Caribbean Passages of the NE Caribbean through Mon night, then subside through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnants of an old frontal boundary have drifted SW and into the Jacksonville, Florida area this afternoon, and extend southeast to near 25N70W. Broken to overcast skies and scattered showers and a few thunderstorms aloft are spread across most of coastal Florida from Palm Beach to the Jacksonville area and extend eastward to near 77W. Broad and deep low pressure N of the area has shifted eastward during the past 24 hours and was nearing 53W this evening. Northerly swell generated by this low will produce large seas of 7 to 12 ft across the waters east of the Bahamas tonight and then slowly subside through Mon night. A cold front associated with the deep low is nearly stationary across the central Atlantic, from 31N37W to the NW coast of Puerto Rico, and will drift SE tonight through Mon and gradually dissipate. High pressure will move SE across the northern waters late Mon through Tue night, then maintain a ridge across the central waters through mid-week. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move off the SE U.S. coast by late Thu night. Farther east, a surface ridge prevails between the stalled cold front and Africa, with a 1020 mb high centered near 23N31W. Fresh to locally strong ENE tradewinds prevail across the tropical Atlantic, to the south of 15N. The high will be nudged gradually eastward of the next few days as the deep low pressure system across the central Atlantic and north of the area continues to shift ENE. $$ Stripling
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