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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


....Atlantic Gale Warning...

A 1012 mb low is centered over the western Atlantic near 31N72W. 
A gale is forecast northwest of the front and east of a line from
31N75W to 28N73W with northeast to east winds and seas 8 to 12 
ft. This is expected to continue through 21/1200 UTC. Please read 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the 
website, for more 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N09W 
to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 00N26W to the coast 
of South America near 06S34W. Isolated moderate convection is near
the monsoon trough from 05N-05S between 06W-1.W. 


A stationary front extends south of the Straits of Florida near 
23N81W to a 1015 mb low near 23N84W. A cold front extends
southwest of this low across western Cuba and into the northwest
Caribbean. Scattered showers are observed across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the western Gulf 
from 26N98W to 21N95W. Near the trough, scattered light to moderate
showers are across Deep South Texas near the mouth of the Rio Grande
river. Scattered showers are also along the trough across the 
eastern Mexican coast. Winds in the eastern half of the Gulf are 
out of the north-northeast between 10-15kt. Winds are beginning 
to veer to the west-southwest across the western Gulf between 
10-15 kt. A mid-level trough is digging across Florida and 
sliding into the western Atlantic with a mid- upper level ridge 
over the western Gulf of Mexico. 

The ridge will dominate the Gulf region over the next
several days producing mainly a moderate to locally fresh wind
flow, except off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where 
late evening local effects will keep brief periods of NE winds to 
20 kt. 


A cold front is pushing southward from western Cuba from a 1013 
mb low near 22N84W to Quintana Roo Mexico near 19N88W. A pre-
frontal trough is also noted from 21N82W to 17N87W. Scattered 
showers are along this trough moving across central Cuba 
southwestward into Belize and northern Honduras. An area of 
showers is also noted near the coast of Nicaragua. Additionally, 
scattered showers are also moving across western Hispaniola, 
Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade 
winds are noted over the eastern and southern Caribbean with 
strong winds north of Colombia. In the northwest Caribbean, winds 
behind the front are out of the north between 10-20 kt with light 
to gentle southwesterly winds ahead of the front. 

The cold front is allowing for a relaxed pressure gradient in the
south-central Caribbean. However, fresh to strong winds are 
expected to pulse at night within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia 
through Thu night. The cold front will move southwest and extend 
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday morning, 
and from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by 
Thursday evening while gradually dissipating. Gentle to moderate 
winds will dominate across the remainder of the basin through Sun.


A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to
the section above for details. A stationary front over the western
Atlantic stretches from a 1016 mb low near 32N77W off the South 
Carolina coast to Daytona Beach Florida. Farther south, another 
stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to a 1012 mb 
low east of the Bahamas near 26N76W. This stationary front 
continues to the Straits of Florida near 23N81W. Scattered showers
are moving off the east coast of Florida into the western 
Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is near the stationary 
front north of 27N between 65W-74W. East of the frontal boundary, 
surface ridging is extending into the western Atlantic waters 
anchored by a 1036 mb high near 47N03W. Upper level ridging is 
currently over the the western Atlantic while an upper level low 
is centered west of the Canary Islands near 26N27W producing 
scattered showers north of 21N between 15W-23W. 

Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected northwest of the 
front and mainly east of 75W through early Thursday morning. The 
low pressure center will gradually shift northeast over the next 
24 hours, dragging the frontal boundary, that is forecast to 
extend from 30N65W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 28N70W to 23N78W
by Thursday morning. The stationary front lingering along the east
coast of Florida will push southward as a reinforcing cold front.
By Friday, it will merge with the stationary front and extend 
from 28N65W to eastern Cuba. Swell generated by these fronts will 
dominate the waters E of the Bahamas through the upcoming weekend.

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