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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.



Expect gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 
12N between 75W and 77W, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 
11 feet, from the early morning hours of today until the middle 
of today. Expect the same conditions in the same areas in 24 
hours or so. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, 
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of 
Liberia near 05N09W, to 03N13W, and to 03N17W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N17W, along 03N from 17W to 40W, to 06N51W and 
06N57W near the coastal border of Guyana and Suriname. An upper 
level trough is along 18N34W 06N43W. Precipitation: broken to 
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered 
moderate to strong are to the south and southeast of the line 
that extends from the coast of The Western Sahara near 28N, to 
27N35W 10N35W 07N45W 08N55W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, 
from 20N southward from 60W eastward.


A slowly-moving cold front is moving away from the southern half 
of the Texas Gulf coast. The front becomes stationary along 97W 
from 24N to 25N. The stationary front curves northwestward,
into Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered 
clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong are to the 
northwest and north of the frontal boundary, in the inland 
border areas of south Texas and NE Mexico. 

A surface trough extends from the NW part of the Yucatan 
Peninsula, southwestward, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of 
southern Mexico. No significant deep convective precipitation is 
apparent in satellite imagery. 

A surface ridge extends from 28N66W, beyond Florida along 28N, 
to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 28N87W. The ridge 
continues to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W.

A ridge will extend across the northern Gulf of Mexico through 
Friday. A trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula overnight, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong 
winds. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico 
on Saturday, and become stationary into Saturday night. The 
western part of the front will begin to move northward as a warm 
front, from late Saturday night through Sunday, while the rest 
of the front dissipates, as Atlantic Ocean high pressure builds 
westward across the area through Sunday night. 


The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, across 
Panama, beyond 08N83W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. 
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N southward from 
70W westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate 
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and 
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the 
surface-to-low level wind flow. Comparatively drier air in 
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in the Caribbean 

High pressure to the north of the area is supporting fresh to 
strong winds in the southeastern and south central Caribbean 
Sea, with the winds pulsing to gale-force off the coast of 
Colombia overnight. Fresh to strong northeast winds also are 
expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through tonight. The wind 
speeds and the sea heights will diminish from Thursday through 
Saturday as the high pressure weakens. Strong winds will persist 
off Colombia that may reach minimal gale-force during the 
overnight hours, on Thursday night and on Friday night. 


A cold front passes through 32N67W to 30N73W, along 30N, and 
beyond southern Georgia. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds 
and possible rainshowers are from 29N northward from 60W 

A surface ridge extends from 28N66W, beyond Florida along 28N, 
into the Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front passes through 32N42W, to 29N50W, to 25N60W 
24N70W, across the Bahamas to 22N76W. Precipitation: widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the NW 
of the stationary front between 50W and 62W. Broken to overcast 
multilayered clouds, and other possible rainshowers are 
elsewhere, within 210 nm to the NW and N of the front, and 
within 60 nm to the south and southeast of the stationary front, 
and from 24N northward between 20W and 50W. 

A surface ridge extends from 30N10W at the coast of Africa, to a 
1024 mb high pressure center that is near 28N32W, to 27N45W to 

The current 24N65W-to-Turks and Caicos stationary front will 
dissipate overnight. A new cold front, currently reaching from 
near Bermuda to northeast Florida, will continue to move 
southward overnight. The main part of this front will move to 
the northeast of the area on Thursday. A stationary segment will 
be left to dissipate along 27N by Thursday evening. This front 
will be followed by yet another cold front, that will move 
southward across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late 
on Friday. The front will reach from near 31N60W to 27N70W and 
to West Palm Beach, Florida on Saturday night. The front will 
begin to weaken, as it reaches the far southern waters late on 
Sunday. High pressure will build in the wake of this front.


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