Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 655 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges offshore of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then continues to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S-05N between 18W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Straits near 25N80W to 22N87W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. To the west, a developing warm front is analyzed from 26N98W to 23N94W. This feature is part of the surface low that will develop over the northwest Gulf of Mexico within the next 24 hours. A surface ridge is building across the northern portion of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 33N90W. Latest scatterometer data depicts mostly moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. The cold front will wash out tonight as another boundary continues to develop to the W and lifts northward ahead of a low pressure system moving off the Texas coast. The low and a trailing cold front will move eastward into the SW Gulf Mon and weaken. Looking ahead, another weak low pressure area will move into the NW Gulf Tue night, drifting E-SE through Wed night, then retreating NW thereafter. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a weakening stationary front is over the Leeward Islands from 18N63W to 17N69W. The scattered showers associated with this frontal boundary will continue to affect the area through the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, two surface troughs have been analyzed along 67W and 76W. These features are well noted in satellite imagery. The tail end of a cold front over the SE Gulf of Mexico is approaching the Yucatan Channel with scattered showers. The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. The weakening stationary front south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will gradually dissipate tonight. Benign marine conditions will prevail the rest of the forecast period as a weak pressure gradient dominates the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N75W to 25N80W with scattered showers. To the east, another cold front extends from 31N51W to 20N58W, then becomes stationary to 18N63W. A surface trough is analyzed along 54W from 14N-18N with scattered showers. To the east, a surface ridge prevails, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 32N28W. The cold front over the west Atlantic will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba on Sun, then dissipate Mon night. Another front will move across S Florida and the Bahamas through early next week, with yet another front by the end of next week. Meanwhile, several sets of northerly swell will propagate through the NE portion of the basin the next several days. $$ ERA
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