NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jan 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Expect gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 75W and 77W, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet, from the early morning hours of today until the middle of today. Expect the same conditions in the same areas in 24 hours or so. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W, to 03N13W, and to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W, along 03N from 17W to 40W, to 06N51W and 06N57W near the coastal border of Guyana and Suriname. An upper level trough is along 18N34W 06N43W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong are to the south and southeast of the line that extends from the coast of The Western Sahara near 28N, to 27N35W 10N35W 07N45W 08N55W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 20N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A slowly-moving cold front is moving away from the southern half of the Texas Gulf coast. The front becomes stationary along 97W from 24N to 25N. The stationary front curves northwestward, into Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong are to the northwest and north of the frontal boundary, in the inland border areas of south Texas and NE Mexico. A surface trough extends from the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula, southwestward, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A surface ridge extends from 28N66W, beyond Florida along 28N, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 28N87W. The ridge continues to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. A ridge will extend across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Friday. A trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula overnight, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and become stationary into Saturday night. The western part of the front will begin to move northward as a warm front, from late Saturday night through Sunday, while the rest of the front dissipates, as Atlantic Ocean high pressure builds westward across the area through Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, across Panama, beyond 08N83W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N southward from 70W westward. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in the Caribbean Sea. High pressure to the north of the area is supporting fresh to strong winds in the southeastern and south central Caribbean Sea, with the winds pulsing to gale-force off the coast of Colombia overnight. Fresh to strong northeast winds also are expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through tonight. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish from Thursday through Saturday as the high pressure weakens. Strong winds will persist off Colombia that may reach minimal gale-force during the overnight hours, on Thursday night and on Friday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N67W to 30N73W, along 30N, and beyond southern Georgia. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 29N northward from 60W westward. A surface ridge extends from 28N66W, beyond Florida along 28N, into the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front passes through 32N42W, to 29N50W, to 25N60W 24N70W, across the Bahamas to 22N76W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the NW of the stationary front between 50W and 62W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other possible rainshowers are elsewhere, within 210 nm to the NW and N of the front, and within 60 nm to the south and southeast of the stationary front, and from 24N northward between 20W and 50W. A surface ridge extends from 30N10W at the coast of Africa, to a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 28N32W, to 27N45W to 23N55W. The current 24N65W-to-Turks and Caicos stationary front will dissipate overnight. A new cold front, currently reaching from near Bermuda to northeast Florida, will continue to move southward overnight. The main part of this front will move to the northeast of the area on Thursday. A stationary segment will be left to dissipate along 27N by Thursday evening. This front will be followed by yet another cold front, that will move southward across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late on Friday. The front will reach from near 31N60W to 27N70W and to West Palm Beach, Florida on Saturday night. The front will begin to weaken, as it reaches the far southern waters late on Sunday. High pressure will build in the wake of this front. $$ mt/ec
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